Experts say change in Liberal leadership unlikely to sway Sask. voters

Article content

The Liberal Party of Canada has not won a seat in Saskatchewan since 2015 and with an election coming later this year, experts say it will take a lot to change that.

“The reality is that Saskatchewan right now is a quite conservative place and there is not really a path to the Liberals making significant gains in-province regardless of who wins the leadership,” argues Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan (U of S).

Article content

It’s a political shutout approaching a decade since long-time Liberal MP Ralph Goodale lost his seat to Conservative Michael Kram in 2019. With the party appointing a new leader to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau by March. 9, it’s unclear if a new face will sway Saskatchewan voters.

Trudeau announced plans to resign as party leader during a media conference in Ottawa on January 6, sparking the leadership race. Since then, Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, Karina Gould, Frank Baylis and Ruby Dhalla have all been approved to make a bid to become party leader and, by default, prime minister. And experts say Carney and Freeland have already established themselves as front runners.

“It is notable that both Carney and Freeland have ties to Alberta,” said Westlake in a recent interview.

At times, Freeland has been seen as something of “west whisperer” in her dealing with leaders in the region. Westlake said she was likely deployed out of necessity as the Liberals have performed poorly in the prairies.

“My view would be that she has often been looked to represent Alberta when the Liberals have not had other options,” he said.

Article content

Article content

In light of America’s deferred threat of tariffs against Canada, voters might be doing a bit of calculus as to which leader and party they feel will be best suited to deal with international trade policy, according to Saskatchewan political scientists.

Last weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump said 25-per-cent tariffs against Canada, with a 10-per-cent tariff applied to Canadian energy, would come into effect Tuesday. Talks between Trump and Trudeau Monday resulted in a 30-day pause on those tariffs while Canada beefs up border security.

“It’s not clear to me if either Freeland or Carney have an advantage in that space,” said Jim Farney, professor and director at the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy in Regina, speaking before the pause was announced.

Domestic policy and matters like cost of living tend to be more important in federal elections compared to foreign policy. But should tariffs come into effect after the current 30-day pause, there is a possibility that it becomes a defining feature of the coming federal election. Still, that does not necessarily mean the liberals will be running downhill.

Article content

“We’re still in a period where we’re in a ‘mood for change’ election … but I think [Pierre] Poilievre will have to answer and differentiate himself from American conservatives,” said Farney of the Conservative Party of Canada’s leader.

But there is some opportunity.

Looking at polling, Westlake says there’s a chance the Liberals could win a seat in northern Saskatchewan’s Desnethé Missinippi Churchill River constituency. Due to a redistribution of boundaries that was completed in 2023, “the riding has lost some of its more Conservative components,” he noted.

“The transpositions I have seen suggest that had the riding had the boundaries it has now in the 2021 election, that the Liberals would have won it,” said Westlake, who added the Liberal candidate at that time was Buckley Belanger, a well known former MLA.

Even though the potential trade war has been delayed, Westlake is unsure what impact that will have on provincial opinions about the Liberal Party. “Most politicians, regardless of partisan stripe, seem to be proposing a mix of reluctant retaliatory tariffs and some degree of concession on border security.”

For Charles Smith, an assistant professor of political science at the U of S, the Liberal Party doesn’t seem too concerned about Saskatchewan.

“With regards to Western Canada, I don’t think that’s their target,” he said. “They’re running to hold on to what they’ve got and hopefully stem the bleeding.”

[email protected]

Article content