Guest column: Take Trump’s threat to annex Canada seriously

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By: Gwynne Dyer

U.S.  President Donald Trump’s threat of 25 per cent tariffs on most Canadian exports to the United States can’t be justified by the false claim that illegal immigrants and large amounts of the synthetic opioid fentanyl are flooding across the Canadian border.

The accusation about fentanyl is preposterous, since the total amount intercepted at the Canadian-U.S. border in the last year is far less than one per cent of the amount stopped at the Mexican-U.S. border.

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As for the alleged border-crossers, why would any migrant safely in Canada (generous to asylum seekers, gun control, universal health care, few crazies, pretty relaxed about race) want to sneak into the U.S. (deportations, medical bankruptcies, guns everywhere, racism rampant, and “Christian nationalists” in charge)?

Trump must have some other motive for including Canada in the top three targets on his tariff hit list with Mexico and China. What could it be?

For want of any more convincing motive, Trump’s oft-repeated intention to annex Canada must be taken seriously. So far, he continues to say he’ll achieve this exclusively by “economic pressure.” and Canadians will cling to this assurance — but don’t bet the farm on it.

The reason it’s hard to take the “American threat” seriously is because countries just don’t behave like this anymore. (OK, Russia does, but it’s the only other country to act on such an ambition, or even express such an intention, for a very long time.) Nevertheless, Trump’s intention is probably real. Just listen to how he speaks.

On Feb. 2, he wrote on Truth Social that Canada “should become our Cherished 51st State. Much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada — AND NO TARIFFS!”

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“We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country.”

It’s a waste of time to rebut Trump’s lies and distortions line by line — there’s one in almost every sentence — but three things are worth noting. First, Canada’s geography means the only country that can pose a direct military threat to it is the U.S. Second, there is no U.S. subsidy of any kind to the Canadian economy. And third, he really means it.

I’m certainly not suggesting Trump has a plan to invade Canada, or even (as he claims) a step-by-step strategy for squeezing Canada economically until it surrenders its sovereignty. Neither do I think he will necessarily succeed in his ambition. But I am saying he poses an existential threat to the Canadian confederation.

Why do people have such trouble believing this? Only 23 years ago, another U.S. president, George W. Bush, actually invaded the wrong country (Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction, and no connection with the 9/11 attacks).

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Trump is even more ignorant than Bush, and certainly more impulsive. He already has begun economic pressure on Canada, which was ready to respond with like-for-like tariffs until Trump suspended his 25 per cent tariff threat for a month. That may be the end of it, for Trump is opening trade wars on many other fronts — but when somebody says they’re going to hurt you, it’s wise to take precautions.

Not one Canadian in 10 would freely choose to become part of the angry, divided society to the south, but they may have to endure a long, miserable economic siege to avoid it. Everybody else will sympathize, but nobody will or even can help much as Trump batters at the door.

And at some point, Canadians may even have to “blow the bridges,” at least metaphorically.

Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist based in London, England.

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